election prediction: part two
An article in today's LA Times (requires registration) supports my claim that both younger and newer voters tend to be leaning heavily towards Kerry:
The article also supports my claim that cell phone only voters would tend to vote more heavily for Kerry: "A New York-based television consulting firm randomly questioned 1,225 voters over the Internet and concluded that 'cell-only' voters favored Kerry by 53% to 38%."
However, the LA Times does quote Gary Langer, the ABC News polling director, as saying that there aren't enough cell-only users to make a difference, though his number of such people (3.6% overall and 6.8% of younger people) seem quite low.
In any case, if you're interested in this stuff, it's a good read. I wanted to post something about it though because it offers some references that I couldn't find when I wrote that essay yesterday.
Nationwide, at least two polls in the last week showed that newly registered voters favored Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kerry by double-digit margins. The Massachusetts senator holds an even greater lead, the polls found, among voters 29 and younger, many of whom will be voting for the first time.
The article also supports my claim that cell phone only voters would tend to vote more heavily for Kerry: "A New York-based television consulting firm randomly questioned 1,225 voters over the Internet and concluded that 'cell-only' voters favored Kerry by 53% to 38%."
However, the LA Times does quote Gary Langer, the ABC News polling director, as saying that there aren't enough cell-only users to make a difference, though his number of such people (3.6% overall and 6.8% of younger people) seem quite low.
In any case, if you're interested in this stuff, it's a good read. I wanted to post something about it though because it offers some references that I couldn't find when I wrote that essay yesterday.
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home